China Macroeconomics Monthly Recap

August 9 – Fixed asset investment in China rose 20.4% year on year to ¥18.43 trillion ($1 = ¥6.34) in the first seven months of 2012; the rate was unchanged from that recorded for the first six months, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Fixed asset investment in the primary sector was up 28.8% to ¥455 billion; fixed asset investment in the secondary sector was up 23.4% to ¥8.29 trillion; fixed asset investment in the tertiary sector was up 17.7% to ¥9.69 trillion.

August 8 – Fixed asset investment made by China's private sector totaled ¥9.37 trillion in 1H 2012, accounting for 62.1% of total urban fixed asset investments, the National Development and Reform Commission said. The percentage was up substantially from 51.2% in May 2010, when a policy aimed at inducing private investment was introduced. In 1H 2012, the private sector's investment in the oil and gas, education and healthcare industries was up 89.2%, 40.2% and 43.1% year on year respectively, well above the growth rates for total investments in these industries.

August 7 – China has called on central government-owned enterprises (COEs) to scrap expansion plans amid an anemic economic outlook which forecasts falling demand as well as rising labor and raw material costs. "All investments aimed at enlarging scale should be suspended and focus should be placed on upgrade of products and business practices," the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said. China's COEs' net profit slipped 16.4% year on year to ¥387 billion in 1H 2012.

August 6 – China's total corporate debts were equivalent to 107% of the country's gross domestic product as of the end of 2011, an extremely alarming level, warned Li Yang, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. It is also the highest level among all the world's economies. A country's corporate debt to GDP ratio is considered dangerous once it reaches 90%, according to standards outlined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

August 3 – China's service sector expanded at a slower pace in July as new orders and outlooks for future business fell, official data show. The non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index declined to 55.6 last month from 56.7 in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The same gauge compiled by HSBC read 53.1 in July, bouncing back from 52.3 a month earlier.

August 3 – The People's Bank of China said it will keep in place a prudent monetary policy to maintain sustainable growth against the faltering world economy. The central bank said the government will fine-tune the policy when time is ripe, and warned that consumer inflation might pick up in 2H 2012. It also said the Renminbi's exchange rate will remain largely stable.

August 1 – The number of people with at least ¥10 million in assets in mainland China has exceeded one million, according to a third-party analysis based on figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics. China now had 1.02 million wealthy people including 63,500 who possessed at least ¥100 million worth of assets as at the end of 2011, up 6.3% and 5.8% respectively from a year earlier. Equities of unlisted firms, properties and art collections were included in the analysis.

July 30 – Chinese labor costs are to catch up with the US in four years, the Eurozone in five years and Japan in seven years, according to a report released by French banking group Natixis SA.

July 27 – China will expand use of a value-added tax to cover 10 more cities and provinces in another trial to boost growth and promote economic restructuring, the Wall Street Journal reported. The program, first implemented in Shanghai at the start of this year, VAT lowers the overall tax burden on certain service sectors by shifting them from a business tax levied on total revenue to a value-added tax like that already paid by manufacturers. China's cabinet said the VAT trial will be expanded to Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Xiamen, as well as the provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian and Hubei from August 1 until the end of the year. More areas will be added next year.

July 25 – Sixteen of mainland China's 31 administrative regions raised their minimum wages by an average 19.7% in 1H 2012, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said. Shenzhen, Guangdong province now reports the country's highest minimum wage at ¥1,500 per month.

July 25 – China's urban unemployment rate stood at 4.1% as of the end of June 2012, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said. The rate has remained unchanged for eight straight quarters. More than 6.9 million jobs were created in 1H 2012.

July 25 – China's tax incomes rose 9.8% year on year to ¥5.49 trillion in 1H 2012, the Ministry of Finance said. The rate was 19.8 percentage points slower than in 1H 2011 as a result of the faltering economy, and a sluggish real estate market in particular. Personal income taxes dropped 8% to ¥327.17 billion during past six months.

July 23 – Central government-owned enterprises, China's largest companies, posted ¥10.57 trillion in revenues and ¥387 billion in net profits for 1H 2012, up 9% and down 16.4% respectively from the same period a year ago, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration said. Rising operating expenses were blamed for the sharp decline in earnings.

July 23 – China's economic expansion may slow to 7.4% between July and September, signaling the world's second largest economy has yet to bottom out, argued Song Guoqing, a central bank adviser. He also warned that a decline in producer as well as consumer prices may hurt industrial earnings and therefore discourage businesses from expanding. China's economic growth slowed to 7.6% in Q2; and premier Wen Jiabao warned of a gloomy economic outlook last week.

July 20 – China is considering expanding a trial program under which certain unlisted companies in Beijing are allowed to sell shares on an over-the-counter trading platform, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the situation. The move will give small businesses, which have struggled to secure loans from state-owned banks, easier access to funding amid a slowing economy. Under the expansion, high-tech companies in Shanghai and Wuhan, the capital of central Hubei province, may be allowed to participate in the pilot program.

July 19 – Revenue from China's express mail service rose 39.7% year on year to ¥46.82 billion in 1H 2012, according to China Post. The EMS segment market delivered 2.39 billion items during the period, up 51% from a year earlier.

July 19 – The Chinese government has agreed to buy investment stakes currently held by General Motors Co's (NYSE: GM) pension plan, potentially making it a sizeable investor in many of the US and Europe's largest private equity funds, the Financial Times reported. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages China's $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, will pay $1.5 billion to $2 billion for GM's positions in blue chip private equity funds managed by firms including Carlyle Group, Blackstone and CVC Capital Partners.

July 19 – The government is encouraging Chinese companies to invest in Africa's transport, telecommunications, electricity and hydropower infrastructure projects, premier Wen Jiabao said. China has also pledged $20 billion in preferential loans to African nations in the next three years. As of the end of June, China has invested $45 billion in Africa, 60% of which were in the manufacturing, financial and construction industries and 25% of which were in the mining industry.

July 17 – China's state-owned enterprises reported ¥19.84 trillion in revenues and ¥1.02 trillion in gross profits in 1H 2012, up 11.1% and down 11.6% year on year respectively as expenses rose 12.8% during the period, the Ministry of Finance said.

July 17 – The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for China's economic growth to 8% this year and 8.5% next year, down 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively. The IMF also cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.5% this year and 3.9% next year.

July 17 – Foreign direct investment in China declined 6.9% from a year earlier to $12 billion in June amid anemic global economic growth, the Ministry of Commerce said. In 1H 2012, the nation's FDI dipped 3% year on year to $59.1 billion.

July 17 – China's offshore non-financial investment shot up 48.2% year on year to $35.42 billion in 1H 2012, the Ministry of Commerce said. The nation invested in 2,163 foreign firms across 116 countries and regions during the period. Of the $35.42 billion, $11.8 billion was invested in mergers and acquisitions. China's total offshore non-financial investment amounted to $357.5 billion as of the end of June.

July 16 – China's economy is not on a track to stable recovery and current difficulties will probably continue for a while, premier Wen Jiabao said during his visit to Sichuan province. The nation's gross domestic product grew 7.6% year on year in Q2 2012, the first time the quarterly growth rate fell below 8% in three years. Analysts say the polices aimed at cooling the property market will not be eased in 2H 2012 and investing in infrastructure still will be the most effective economic stimulus.

July 13 – China's government revenue and expenditures totaled ¥1.1 trillion and ¥1.27 trillion respectively in June, up 9.8% and 17.7% year on year respectively, the Ministry of Finance said. In 1H 2012, government revenue and expenditures totaled ¥6.38 trillion and ¥5.39 trillion, up 12.2% and 21.3% respectively from 1H 2011.

July 13 – Fixed asset investment in China rose 20.4% year on year to ¥15.07 trillion in 1H 2012; the rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than in the first four months, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Fixed asset investment in the primary sector was up 28.6% to ¥365.4 billion; fixed asset investment in the secondary sector was up 23.7% to ¥6.78 trillion; fixed asset investment in the tertiary sector was up 17.4% to ¥7.93 trillion.

July 13 – China's urban disposable income averaged ¥12,509 per person in 1H 2012, up 13.3% year on year and up 9.7% if inflation is accounted for, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

July 13 – China's gross domestic product grew 7.6% year on year in Q2 2012, the first time the quarterly growth rate fell below 8% in three years, further evidence that the world's second largest economy is sputtering, according to preliminary data from the National Bureau of Statistics. GDP amounted to ¥22.71 trillion in 1H 2012, up 7.8% from 1H 2011. Output by the primary sector was up 4.3% to ¥1.75 trillion; output by the secondary sector was up 8.3% to ¥11.1 trillion; output by the tertiary sector was up 7.7% to ¥9.87 trillion.

July 11 – The financial industry whose average annual salary was ¥91,364, the highest in China, was 4.48 times the agriculture industry's ¥20,745 in 2011, according to figures from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. The gap has been slashed from 11.86 in 2010. The gap peaked at 15.93 in 2008.

July 11 – China's priority is to ensure "reasonable growth" of investment which will be a tough task in the long run as the nation's economic gravity shifts toward consumer spending, premier Wen Jiabao said. Investments in the hi-tech and emerging industries will prevail, with strong fiscal and financial support, Wen noted. China's inflation eased to a 29-month low of 2.2% in June, giving the government greater leeway to take bolder actions to reinvigorate slack growth.

July 10 – China's grain output in the summer is expected to reach 130 million tons, up 2.8% from the same period of last year and the highest level since 1997, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

July 10 – China's bilateral trade rose 9% from a year earlier to $328.69 billion in June, with the trade surplus widening to $31.73 billion, customs figures show. Exports grew 11.3% year on year to $180.2 billion and imports grew 6.3% to $148.48 billion last month. Imports grew at half the pace economists had expected, underscoring concerns over the Chinese and global economies. In 1H 2012, exports were up 9.2% to $954.38 billion and imports were up 6.7% to $885.46 billion, generating a $68.91 billion trade surplus.

July 9 – Sixteen of mainland China's 31 provincial level administrative regions raised their minimum wages by an average 17% in 1H 2012, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said, adding that the growth rate was well below the 22% recorded in 1H 2011. Economists say thinner industrial margins were to blame and the increase in the minimum wages will likely continue to slow in 2H.

July 6 – China's central bank cut interest rates for the second time in less than a month, raising concerns that June data would turn out ugly and signaling the government may take further actions to revive the nation's faltering economy, the world's second largest. The benchmark one-year lending rate was reduced by 0.31 percentage points to 6% and the one-year deposit rate was reduced by a quarter of a percentage point to 3%. The 3-percentage-point gap is still among the biggest in the world.

July 6 – China's wine production is expected to hit 2.2 million kiloliters per year by the end of 2015, double the level recorded in 2010, according to a plan released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Revenue from wine sales in the country is expected to grow 13% annually to ¥60 billion from 2010 through 2015, the plan shows.